The reason it will not succeed is because:
a) No apps network - as MS itself knows, the reason for its dominance in Office applications and windows is because it got the apps & user-threshhold surrounding it. Right now, apps are with Apple for stand-alone and Android for multi-device options
b) It is not open-source - Loads of development costs and incompatibility issues on multiple hardware platforms. Who wants to go through that head-ache when one can develop the same stuff on Android and get on all devices across the world in a jiffy.
c) It costs - Unlike Android which is free or Apple which is free but runs only on apple device, the developers/device manufacturers have to pay to Microsoft. Who in his right mind want to pay when you have free options which are excellent with ready-made market.
d) It doesn't cater to niche applications either - Unlike say Blackberry, MS is in the camp of Nokia. In no man's land. Nobody knows what it is for, what it is pushing or what its priorities are in mobile space. It is just following and hoping.
e) Finally, it cannot crush competitors as in the past - Apple is bigger than Microsoft and Google is almost big if not bigger. Unlike in the past when it could crush Netscape to Lotus, that time is gone now. These new competitors have cast-flow of more than $25 billion.
As I said before, the days of easy money is over for Microsoft. Yes, it still raised loads of cash-flow every year, but as Apple and its launch of new innovative products have shown the door for so many well-run, well-established companies from Nokia to Blackberry to Amazon, the disruption caused by innovation leads to a killer-blow when least expected.
I look forward to the launch of touch-screen apple mac. That is when the real blow to Microsoft Cash-Cow of Windows will land. Last year Mr. Ballmer was lucky when $44 billion on Yahoo would have wiped out his company's complete cash reserve. But lady-luck is not like the postman who always rings twice!!!
Pradeep Kabra
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